The main characteristics of the new Pope, populist and conservative, will be reflected in the Church actions. That is why he was elected Pope in the first place! What is he likely to do?
To restore credibility, I think that the new Pope will quickly take measures regarding sexual abuses within the Catholic Church and obscure financial transactions at the Vatican. He will probably implement measures to show explicit tolerance of divorced couples, of couples not formally married and, probably, of homosexual couples. But such tolerance will not mean changes in the traditional Church definition. It is probably that the Pope will be very vocal in defense of human rights. That may allow him to dispel suspicions and accusations about his actions during the cruel dictatorship that governed Argentina during the 70s. Anyway the controversy about his alleged actions (or lack of) in Argentina may grow and some form of scandal cannot be excluded.
He will place high priority on poverty related issues, social inclusion and access to water and natural resources by the poor. The latter topic will bring the Church closer to issues it has not addressed until now, at least not in a very active manner: environmental protection. By addressing these issues actively, the Church will inevitably get closer to, or take distance from, some governments and social sectors. This agenda may stop the diminishing support of the Catholic Church, a trend very noticeable in Central America where Catholicism does not have as many followers as evangelical churches. Community works, in which Jesuits traditionally excelled, will be emphasized. I believe that the Church will increasingly accept to work in coordination with other religious groups and even government organizations in this regard. However, in order to be able to carry out such tasks, the Church will need to address the insufficient number of priests and the role of women. Nevertheless, I am convinced that no female priesthood will be allowed for many years if ever. Allowing priests to marry may be openly discussed in the near future. But it is unlikely that the rules that govern celibacy will be changed any time soon.
Conservatism, with a good measure of pragmatism, will prevail. The Church will not accept the use of contraceptives and condoms. Its position on abortion will not change. That will also be the case regarding same sex marriages, a topic that will continue to create frictions with governments in the Americas and other continents. While the church will continue to be very vocal on this issue, I think that it will avoid massive campaigns like the one Pope Francisco, as Cardinal, led in Argentina and created strong animosity with the government and large segments of the population. That accommodation to the new reality may be necessary as the trend to legalize same sex marriages seems unstoppable. Similarly, the Church opposition to the use of contraceptives will be more formal than militant, which is basically the case now. I believe that the Church will eventually accept the use of condoms and contraceptives but not for the time being. Dilma Rousseff, the Brazilian President, handled condoms during the Carnival festivities. That was part of the fight against AIDS since promiscuity is widespread during those celebrations; something that is not new at all. The Church opposition to Dilma’s condom distribution, if there was any, was not heard. Brazil is the country with the largest Catholic population in the world.
But pragmatism forced by the social environment also makes the doctrinaire cohesion of the Church a real challenge. Avoiding changes will be virtually impossible. Making them too fast will deprive the Church of its personality and could precipitate divisions. That is a real dilemma for the Catholic Church. That is why the new Pope prayed for the church unity in his first day. To navigate through this dilemma, it was probably appropriate for Cardinals to select a 76-years old Pope: he will have time to implement some changes and adjustments but not to introduce changes in the doctrine. For such an objective, a much younger Pope would have been needed, somebody with more proximity to the prevailing culture in the world these days.
Secularism is spreading quickly and so is the search for answers to human anxiety. Many educated persons search for answers in oriental, less structured religions (at least to the western eyes). They also search for such answers in small local religions/churches outside Catholicism. I think that the Pope will try to attract these people with the new agenda focusing on more tolerant attitude, on community work and a more assertive role on environmental matters. Still it will not be easy. Other churches are very active and enjoy the same legal status as the Catholic Church even in traditionally Catholic countries.