Who will win?
• It looks like Biden will win. This is highly probable, but not by any means certain. At this time, on October 9th, Biden’s sizable advantage in the polls might seem to reduce the possibility of violent disputes. Violence, however, could erupt during the vote count.
• Let’s not forget that the Senate is also on the ballot. That could be almost as important as the presidential election.
• Trump’s prospects have been reduced by the pandemic and the concomitant damage to the economy. Before, he had been undeservedly reaping the benefits of a growing economy and low unemployment.
• The coming weeks will be decisive. Not only in relation to the election results, but also in terms of violent and/or legal disputes following the opening of the ballot boxes. It would be naive to exclude or minimize the possibility of violent incidents, even isolated but shocking incidents. The plot to kidnap the Governor of Michigan is an indication of what may be coming.
Why are these elections so heated?
• I believe that the main factors explaining the strong divisions in society are cultural and systemic. These underlying tensions are around race, education, gender, religion and urbanization. Immigration and rapid globalization also play major roles. These are global phenomena affecting, in one way or another, most countries.
• The role of the State is also at the center of political disputes: health, public education, infrastructure, environmental protection, and policing. The other side of that debate is around taxation to finance proposed public policies.
• Important institutional crises, particularly the treatment of African Americans and minorities by the Criminal Justice System, came into focus after the assassination of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
• Abortion rights have been undermined during the Trump administration and are further threatened by the nomination of the very conservative judge Amy Barrett to the Supreme Court.
• The electoral fight is also focused on the Trump administration’s approach to the pandemic. It has promoted a permissive attitude, prioritizing the economy over health and safety. The US is amongst the highest Covid19 death rates in the entire world.
• Both candidates vindicate the self-appointed role of the US as the world’s absolute leader. Biden emphasizes Russia as key rival. Trump has sharpened his attack on China, albeit that was not his attitude until recently.
What is expected after the elections?
These are my main views:
• Even if Biden wins, Trumpism is here to stay and, I would add, in a very aggressive way.
• Regardless of the election results, extremist armed groups may be more active than ever.
• A triumphant Biden may rapidly introduce a public health option. That could have a great impact on the health sector. This would only be possible if the Democrats capture the Senate.
• If Amy Barrett is appointed to the Supreme Court, radical decisions can be expected even before January. These rulings may include the dismissal of the Affordable Care Act and the criminalization of abortion. If Biden wins, there will be significant pressure to expand the number of judges at the Supreme Court with a focus on reversing these measures. We are witnessing dramatic chapters of Lawfare.
• The US may try to reinsert itself into the international community. If Biden wins this may include: rejoining Paris Agreement, the World Health Organization, and maybe reinstating the Iran Agreement. However, irrespective of who wins, I would expect aggressive policies vis a vis China, Russia and any leftist regime in South America. Assertive US policies will clash with a new international reality: a more powerful China, a less supportive Europe, a more skeptical world. Beyond the points mentioned before, I would not expect major changes in international policies under any administration.
• Biden is enjoying the support of prominent Republicans. Such support will fade, for the most part, when and if Biden is inaugurated.
• In my opinion, the political climate with Trump out of power will improve but probably less than expected. Although Trump’s personality is incredibly toxic, changes in the policies he implemented would depend on the intensity of public demands not on personalities.