Introduction
The post-election fight is not over yet. Biden has nevertheless started the difficult task of building power for his prospective government, and setting its agenda and immediate priorities. Amongst those are tackling the pandemic, addressing the financial hardships that large segments of the population face, and implementing an economic reactivation program. He will need to broaden his support. Even out of government, Trump —or Trumpism— will be a formidable obstacle. It will probably control the Senate, the Supreme Court, and will enjoy huge popular support. In order to govern, Biden must isolate extremists within the Republican Party, a difficult objective indeed. Without a Senate majority, this Democratic administration will find itself significantly incapacitated.
Challenges and Opportunities
- Institutional Weaknesses This election has proven beyond any doubt how outdated, rural, and unfair the electoral system is. It is convoluted, mostly subject to the supervision of states instead of independent electoral authorities, based on an anti-democratic Electoral College not popular sovereignty, and highly inefficient. (The US, in fact, has one of the most inefficient election systems in the world.) Institutional weaknesses are reinforced by a Supreme Court whose members are appointed for life, by simple majority of the Senate, that answers to nobody. A very old Constitution, reflecting a rural and slaveholding society empowers the Judiciary to rule on political or societal issues thereby limiting the power of other branches of government. Biden will not be able to solve these structural issues, but will he be able to ameliorate their negative impacts?
- Pandemic The spread of the pandemic presents a very dangerous threat (and also opportunity) to the new administration. The issue has been politicized in the US and several other countries. It highlights the need not only for public policies on health, but also for an active role of the state in several areas of life. The opposition regards this sort of role as an affront to individual freedoms. The pandemic also underscores other central issues such as income distribution and racial/ethnic discrimination.
- Environmental Problems These need to be urgently addressed, beyond rhetoric. Very powerful interests, including from inside the Democratic Party, will resist this. Biden repeatedly advocated during his campaign for measures to aggressively promote renewable sources of energy. Will he be able to fully implement them?
- Economic Hardships, Poverty The pandemic has resulted in extreme hardships. It has aggravated structural poverty and inequalities. The initial measures the US government took to attenuate hardships have nearly halted. So far, congress has not agreed on extensions. The service sector, which is an intensive employer, is operating well bellow its pre pandemic levels. Partial solutions would not be too complicated, however, they would require political compromises between Democrats controlling the Chamber of Representatives and Republicans controlling the Senate. Will a Biden intervention solve this discord?
- Health Insurance System The country cannot afford the present health insurance system. A broad national insurance system would extend the current Medicare system for seniors to the rest of the population. This political climate, however, does not favor implementing such a system. Biden favors introducing a public insurance option to all Americans. That would probably address a great deal of health issues and strengthen Obamacare, the current system. It would still, however, continue to be extremely expensive and bureaucratic. Drug costs, in particular, are several times higher than in the rest of the world because drug makers are not subject to any price control. There are other structural problems which increase health costs and reduce efficiency. Medical schools are prohibitively expensive. Preventive health treatments are not given as much importance as curative treatments. The current insurance system includes high administrative expenses. The list goes on. Unless Democrats regain the Senate, which looks unlikely at this stage, Biden will not be able to undo Trump’s changes nor do much on health at all.
- Public Infrastructure This could be the core of an economic recovery. Infrastructure is in dire condition and requires urgent upgrades. The infrastructural deficit, including basic deferred maintenance, has been estimated at about US$ 3 trillion, or 15 % of the GDP. But financing such programs are likely to be controversial. In fact, the federal deficit in 2019, before the pandemic, was already very high: US$ 1 trillion, or 5 %ofthe GDP. With the pandemic, the deficit has tripled. Taxes on corporations and high income individuals were reduced by the Trump administration. Biden has promised to increase them. High deficits, in any case, seem unavoidable in the years to come. Will Biden be able to obtain approval for an infrastructure program so badly needed? Again, the Senate holds the key.
- Police Brutality, Criminal Justice Reform Any major incident of police brutality, particularly against African Americans, will be prominently registered under a Biden presidency. He will need to deliver in this regard. Not only because it is a matter of basic justice but also because the vote of the African-American community was crucial in making the Democratic victory possible. A Commision to agree on the solutions, as promised by Biden, may not be sufficient to prevent gross abuses. Eliminating legal protection to law enforcement personnel and making police abuse a federal crime may discourage local police from committing crimes against its citizens. Changing the punitive nature of the criminal justice system is the real, long term solution but we should acknowledge that such a change will require deep societal changes.
- A Complex International Situation This may complicate matters for the Biden administration early on in his tenure. Rejoining the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization and reassuring NATO partners will all be easy measures to take. The pressure, however, by the military industrial complex will be felt almost immediately. Rejoining the Iran Agreement will be strongly opposed. Moreover, additional pressures may be mounted to increase sanctions. That would not be well received by major European countries. Strong rhetoric against China and Russia is likely to continue. China is a capitalist competitor to the US. It is not a threat to the US, militarily. Choosing an enemy is very much an imperial attitude. The US should compete with China in the economic and scientific areas. Better infrastructure, health systems, more education —particularly in areas where Trump won— improved environment, they all can increase US productivity and make China less of a competitor. Biden will also find it difficult to pressure Latin-American countries as the US has done in the past. China is the main commercial partner and prospective financier for several countries there. Russia is about to use its Covid-19 vaccine as a geopolitical tool. Besides, by unilaterally renouncing international treaties in last four years, the US has discredited itself. Biden could achieve progress, however, by acting through international organizations where the US has influence. Bilateral pressures on matters such as human rights and institutional improvements in developing countries may backfire. The domestic record of the US in those areas is not exemplary.
- Democrats gained support in areas of high density As urbanization proceeds, prospects for increasing democratic votes may improve, but Trump’s support in rural and semi-rural areas was formidable. Democrats can not ignore that. Those are, in most cases, poor areas. Improved infrastructure would benefit them as well as increasing minimum wages. That would depend on Biden’s ability to implement policy. If the Biden government can preside over the conclusion of the pandemic and the quick expansion of the economy, it can reap the political benefits around the country. Will this administration take advantage of the opportunity?
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Consulted
The State of the Infrastructure, McBride, J. ans Moss, J., Council of Foreign Relations, September 2020, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/state-us-infrastructure
Cost of Defered Maintenance tops US$ 1 trillion, new report finds, Carey, L., Transportation Today, November 2019 https://transportationtodaynews.com/news/16110-cost-of-deferred-maintenance-for-u-s-infrastructure-tops-1-trillion-new-report-finds/
Congressional Budget Office, https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
Why Atlanta is on my mind, Krugman, P. The New York Times, November 10, 2020