The Israeli Prime Minister spoke eloquently and unambiguously … to the American audience. As if addressing a (US) political rally, he referred at one point to “Democrats and Republicans”. The day after, he took calls from Obama and Romney. This man has power the US, indeed. And no wonder: he is himself a product of American education and the American political culture after all.
From his speech it was clear that an attack on Iran will happen before spring or summer; that is, after the US elections. He marked the red line. The speech invoked the prophets a number of times and Netanyahu spoke as if he represented the entire Jewish people. I thought he represented Israel, where more than 20% of the citizens are Palestinians, which is to say that there are proportionately more Palestinians in Israel than there are African-Americans in the United States. Moreover, more (non-Israeli citizen) Jews live outside of Israel than in it and they did not elect Benjamin Netanyahu.
He barely referred to the occupation. He made clear, in a manner that many will find arrogant, that the “Jewish State of Israel” could live side by side with a demilitarized Palestinian state. In this way, Netanyahu has reiterated the condition that Palestinians not only recognize Israel, which they already do, but also recognize Israel as a Jewish state. The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority has made it clear that they do recognize the State of Israel but the character of the State of Israel is not their business.
The chart used by Netanyahu was effective, although criticized as technically inaccurate in some of the Israeli press. But its importance is undeniable. It set a timetable, a very short one. Probably spring, a few months from now. Because of the current election in the US, where everybody strives to appear as pro-Israeli as possible, political players and the press have not focused on the gravity of Netanyahu’s statement. As we know, if Israel attacks Iran the US will be involved no matter what it does. Negotiations with Iran are excluded by Netanyahu; he is unclear on the type of measures that will “prevent war”. And in any case, a few months are not enough to settle a very complex matter. The use of uranium for energy, which is taking place in Iran according to the International Atomic Energy report cited by Netanyahu, does not seem acceptable. So, if one reads the speech carefully, he did not set a red line but rather a timetable! To reaffirm his view, Netanyahu referred to the suicidal nature of the Iranians’ ideology. In reality, all the evidence and experience point in the opposite direction. The only satisfaction that the Obama administration can take from this speech is that the strike will not take place before the elections.
To sum up, Netanyahu is a strong political player in the US. He has as much if not more power than the President to start a war. If there are no major changes in the political and international situation, the war will take place, probably within the first six months of 2013. As a side effect, the Palestinian conflict will not be resolved for a long time, making the two-state solution unviable and leaving room only for a settlement à la South African. Can the war scenario be avoided?