Obama’s visit to Israel will have no consequence. If anything, it will condition USA policies towards Iran even more. Nothing will happen in relation to the occupation issue. Settlements and expropriation of lands in the West Bank will continue. Hezbollah and Hamas will be referred to in the same rhetorical manner as usual. This trip, however, will probably mark a very important aspect of the reality in the region: the possibility of the two-state solution seems basically over; apartheid or a solution alla South Africa are now the only possible paths.

Netanyahu does not want to discuss settlements or land expropriation. Moreover, he will expand them even retroactively by legalizing some “unauthorized” settlements. Obama’s conversations with the Palestinian Authority will simply be a formality. A new Intifada is in the making but it will not be discussed or even alluded to. Such movement may spread inside Israel, to the Israeli-Palestinian population. It may also extent to other segments of the Israeli population. At this moment, Israel is building one state, Great Israel, from the Mediterranean to Jordan. It is not a democratic state; it is a theocratic state increasingly based on apartheid rules.

Iran will be at the center of this visit. Israel, as powerful as it is, has a limited power to stop Iran if it is in fact pursuing atomic weapons. The main power of Israel is to pressure the USA to act and bomb Iran. That is Netanyahu’s real intention and objective. Obama is reluctant to do that. He knows the unpredictable costs of such action. Now everybody talks about the “red” line and “everything is on the table”. Both code words for bombing Iran. The more vitriolic the rhetoric, the less the probabilities for a diplomatic solution. Soon, very soon, Israel will demand that the USA start bombing Iran. Israel may start it actually. By doing so, it will make impossible for the USA to remain passive. The conflict with Iran, which should not exist, allows Israel to move focus away from its domestic policies as discussed before.

The policy towards Hamas and Hezbollah is also very short sighted.These groups are part of a very complex reality. They are a kind of Muslim Brotherhoods in their respective places. Hamas won the elections in Palestine and rules in Gaza. It cannot be ignored in any meaningful settlement. Hezbollah is also an important political player in Lebanon with positions in the Parliament and the Government. Hamas and Hezbollah receive support from Iran but it is not factually true that they are simply “Iranian proxies”. They are listed as terrorist groups in the USA but not in Europe. They act in their territories; accusations of terrorist acts outside have not been substantiated.

Israel has legitimate concerns about the situation prevailing in neighboring countries. However it can do very little about it; it will have to learn to live with it. Arab countries are living through revolutions and turmoil; there will be instability for some years to come. A closer association of Israel with Europe and Turkey is the intelligent thing to do under such circumstances. But Israel is doing exactly the opposite and isolates itself even more. USA support for Israel may be slowly eroding. Moreover, the fact that the USA is close to achieving energy self-sufficiency may change the geopolitical reality thereby making the Middle East, including Israel, less important for American policy makers. Countries value historical links … only for a time. Interests always prevail. Besides, the links between Israel and the USA are relatively new (Eisenhower even gave Israel an ultimatum to pull its troops from the Suez Canal in 1956).

To sum up, Obama’s trip Israel will focus mostly on Iran, not on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. It may create more pressure on the USA to bomb Iran. If Obama does bomb Iran, his Presidency will change radically! He will lose whatever power and appeal he may still have. But that is another topic.