When it comes to football, luck may be decisive. But I think that good analyses help to predict in 90% of cases. It happened in the previous World Cup. I dare say that the results of the World Cup depend mostly on the quality of the teams (mainly in defense and attack), their perseverance in the game and their morale. There are many factors determining the quality of a team: the complementarity of its players, their aggressiveness in scoring, and the success or not of the programmed game strategy (which is normally based on the respective comparative advantages of the rival teams). It also has to be said that random factors (luck?) may also play a decisive role in any game (i.e. an injury of a key player).
In a tournament of this nature, the selection of groups can help (or hurt): being selected in a group with easy rivals help to consolidate the team spirit and raise morale early on. On the last point, the morale of the team may be essential. That is why being local is a crucial help in many cases.
A software program could be made to capture all, or almost all, variables and predict results. I am sure there are many software programs. I preferred, however, using a qualitative analysis (something I avoid as an economist).
I believe that Germany is the strongest team. It has a defense of iron, with an exceptional goalkeeper who combines the skills of Yashin (the famous Russian goalkeeper), Julio Cesar and Bufon. The team also has efficient strikers and midfielders who connect the ball with great speed. In recent years, Germany learnt to combine its great efficiency and speed with ability to “triangulate” the ball. Thus, it took the best of the English and Spanish teams and combined it with Germany’s efficiency in striking. The presence of German players in other leagues, the hiring of coaches from other countries to lead local teams, like Bayern, has given the German team a technical touch it did not have before. In addition, Germany always puts up a fight to the end. It is persistent. And, even on a bad day, it never loses by a landslide.
Brazil is somewhat less powerful than Germany. The difference is small and Brazil, as the home team, may compensate for it with a great team spirit. However, being the home team can also play against a relatively weak team because of the perceived pressure to win. But this is not the case with Brazil. With super-players such as Neymar, Alves, Hulk and others, Brazil can combine the fast game with strong skills. It does not avoid the “physical” game and can even get advantages from it. It has been growing and it is now at its best.
Spain is also a strong candidate but with a somewhat outdated style. Others teams have learned to neutralize its game of continual passes and “filtered” balls. The strategy of “slow elaboration” before striking (that Andrés Iniesta brings to the team) is not enough: now it is also necessary to be more aggressive, something the Spanish team seems to be lacking in. If Spain changes its game strategy and incorporates the aggressiveness of David Villa combined with the precision it showed before, its chances will improve. But perhaps it is too late to do so. Furthermore, its defense has shown many weaknesses in recent games.
Argentina has not made much progress lately. Its defense improved somewhat but it is not stable. Their strikers are very good but do not show the tactical flexibility needed when an opponent neutralizes some of them, particularly Messi. The team spirit disappears after the first setback. Some players are ready to protest and earn the yellow card. Argentina plays well when the rival plays in the expected manner. But today, teams adjust their strategy taking into account the particular opponent they face. No one plays as expected.
Portugal is a team to fear. It has some excellent and fast strikers, particularly C. Ronaldo. But the quality of the team is lower than that of Brazil, Germany or Spain. On a good day, however, it could challenge any of them with a fair chance.
Italy is always a team to fear. The team is not the most powerful one, but has experienced players who know how to take advantage of any situation. It is the mortal enemy of Germany, for reasons not easy to establish. It can put up a good fight against Brazil or Spain.
Several teams are at the same level as Portugal, in my opinion: the Netherlands (whose quality declined since the last World Cup), Colombia (which may lose Falcao and would suffer greatly from it) and England. Belgium and Switzerland have made remarkable progress and could surprise the world. We must never underestimate Uruguay which has great players, like Suarez, and plays with dignity and commitment.
I have analyzed other teams and I think that they have only a limited chance of advancing to the quarter finals.
Taking into account the quality of the teams, their drive to win and their perseverance in the game, I agree with most analysts who consider Brazil the favorite. If Brazil and Germany are first in their respective groups, I think they are likely to meet each other in the semifinals. Switzerland could threaten the powerful Germany on their way to semifinals. If Spain is first in its group and progress further, it could face Portugal or Argentina in the semi-finals. If Spain beats any of them, it would compete with Brazil for the World Cup. In that case, there would be a repeat of the Confederations Cup final, when Brazil won decisively.
Can Argentina overcome its weaknesses and get to the final? I doubt it. But in football nothing is impossible, and Argentina, with some world-class players, can perform well. Its chances of being champion, however, are unfortunately very small.
The following table shows a (imperfect of course) prediction of what may happen in the Cup.
