Restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba seems to have several objectives.
Firstly, both Cuba and the USA stand to reap important benefits. The business lobby in the USA is all for it because it means that a new market, full of opportunities, will open up. US businesses have been losing ground to other countries because of the embargo policy. The impact in Cuba will, of course, be quite dramatic but initially it will be limited until such time as Congress lifts the embargo, which is uncertain at this stage.
Secondly, with this step the USA can draw politically closer to Latin America. Over time, the USA has become less relevant in Latin America, particularly outside the NAFTA member countries. The participation of Cuba in the next Summit of the Americas is very telling. For the first time, the USA appears to have encouraged this participation.
Thirdly, Cuba is becoming a more open society. USA-Cuba relations will speed up this process, particularly because of the strong human links between Cuba and the USA. However, it is in the interest of both countries that this process be carefully calibrated. If the process is precipitated, it may result in a total breakdown of the system in Cuba, projecting instability in the Caribbean region and causing massive immigration into Florida as in the 1980s.
Fourthly, normalizing relations with Cuba may change somewhat the electoral map of the USA in favor of the Democrats. The lifting of sanctions, the funding of the Embassy, the appointment of Ambassadors, all will be sour political issues, full of complexities and ups-and-downs. The political spectrum is not clearly defined; however, Democrats are more in favor of the measure while Republicans seem, with some exceptions, against it. Florida’s economy and politics may be impacted by the measure. The normalization will be favored by the majority for economic reasons if not for others.
Fifth, this step seems delinked from any regime-change policy although it would be naïve to think that the USA is not pursuing such an objective in the longer term. The USA may have to be cautious in putting any pressure on Cuba to undertake political changes which may backfire once again. On the question of human rights, this is the worst possible moment for the USA even to mention such a topic. Once the issue of the embargo is over, it is quite possible that regional and international organizations exert increasing pressure so Cuba opens up its political/electoral process.
Finally, the active role of the new Pope in helping restore full diplomatic relations lends legitimacy to the event. The Pope, whose popularity continues to grow, is the main political winner in this, whether he intended that or not. The very fact of his personal participation may tend to diminish the impact of any vitriolic right wing opposition to the reestablishment of diplomatic links.