Will Donald Trump be reelected?

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This country is definitively moody. Whoever looks like a winner has the upper hand while such perception lasts. Elections  are portrait in a dramatic way and TV performances could be decisive. Few constituencies in few states have the key to success … or defeat. One man (or one woman) is not equal to one vote given the way the Electoral College works.

At this moment, there is a perception that Trump will be re-elected. But that could change. Key questions are: which elements militate in favor of Trump’s re-election? Which against him? What are the challenges the democratic candidate needs to overcome?

Is the economy favoring Trump re-election?

The economy is performing well. Growth is taking place and unemployment is at a low historic record. It should be noted that Trump, a lucky man indeed, inherited a growing economy and expanding labor market. But economic growth is now decelerating and the creation of new employment is concentrated in low-paying jobs. The cut in income taxes had little impact on growth.  However, the budget deficit has grown to  a trillion dollars as a result of a tax cut and a large increase in military spending.  The cut in taxes mostly benefitted corporations and the rich. It did not result in more investments. The increase in the already high military spending had little if any impact on security. A much needed and promised infrastructure program has never been delivered.

A mild industrial recession is already affecting good-paying  employment in some states electorally important. Expansion  in some activities is taking place at the expense of the environment, i.e. some energy projects.

The overall economic picture is the following: employment is almost full; business investment is low and labor productivity is lagging (having dropped for the first time in four years). Based on these elements, growth and employment expansion may be reaching a peak. Stagnation of GDP or even decline is likely to happen but nobody could anticipate whether it will take place before the election or not and whether it would be mild or deeper. Opinions on an impending recession seem diverse.

Other factors affecting the election

Trump has exploited the culture of white nationalism. American superiority and militarism that permeates the American society seems less intensive among the urban and the young. His explicit racism solidifies his support among the rural and semi-rural population, as well as some rich segments of the society. He cleverly exploited his exit from international agreements, simplifying complex issues, exaggerating some factors or simply lying about others. He abandoned the Iran Nuclear agreement, the Paris Climate Agreement, forced partners to rewrite trade treaties, let arms agreements expire. It must be recognized that Trump has not involved the USA in overt wars, which makes him different from his predecessors. He is likely to use this point to be re-elected.  However, the USA participation in regional conflicts and his involvement through surrogates has made some regions even more unstable. This strategy was already initiated by Obama in some instances. The USA plays a role in the civil war in Yemen through a Saudi surrogate. Killing Iranians provided Trump with a triumphalist munition despite the fact that Iran has been very important, perhaps decisive, in defeating ISIS. Trump’s support for Guaidó in Venezuela has not facilitated a democratic solution, judging by the results. Trump returned to the failed Cuba policy of the past. His support for a military coup in Bolivia was a departure from previous policies on military takeovers. The coup was followed by assassinations, political repression and, by all indications, the preparation of a fraudulent election. Trump has encouraged Bolsonaro in Brazil and Netanyahu in Israel to carry out extremist policies.  In this latter case, the USA reverted its own historic positions on sensitive issues (Golan Heights, Jerusalem, Settlements) going beyond the almost unconditional support historically provided to Israel. Decorating the dying Rush Limbaugh in a State of the Union was an extreme sign of support for the culture of nationalism, racism and American superiority. All these policies have made Trump a hero of a sizable part of the population. But they do not appeal to the urban and suburban residents, the young, most women and the more educated.

Trump is proposing cuts in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. He has been systematically attacking the right to abortion and appointing conservative Judges. In this way he solidifies his support among some religious groups, mostly evangelicals, but alienates women voters of urban and suburban areas, important contributors to the Democratic Party victory in 2018. Trump presents himself as vulgar, with poor vocabulary, insulting when needed. In this manner, he identifies himself with the less sophisticated citizens and projects authenticity.

Why is the opposition to Trump so Pessimistic on the Elections?

The economy looks good but fragile. This underlines danger ahead which is not easy to explain to the electorate. In addition, the democratic candidates have not shown special attractiveness. The public do not seem particularly excited by any of them, except by Sanders who has a very loyal following but is perceived as too radical by a great deal of the electorate. Besides, his age is a factor and he had heart problems recently. Biden looks old, unfocused and has been tainted by his son’s membership in the Board of a corrupt Ukrainian energy company. He has not been doing well in recent primaries and his performance in the democratic debates has been mediocre, unappealing. The rest of the Democrats competing in the primaries are being “tested”. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are emergent candidates. They are regarded as centrists.

What are the wining issues for Democrats?

The elections are not lost for the Democrats. The question is  who is the candidate able to defeat Trump? At this moment, it is unclear. But whoever is the Democratic candidate, he or she will not surpass the entertaining abilities of Trump. Nevertheless, he or she should have appeal and show authenticity.  The candidate should stress positions in a very emphatic manner, leaving no doubt to the electorate. People hate accommodations to contradictory positions, rightly so. Even when attacking Trump he or she should be very specific and offer better options.

Democrats could unify themselves around a progressive but relatively moderate agenda. This agenda would have to address people’s urgent needs and gathers broad support,  reaching even some Republicans. In consonance with the previous description of the economy and key issues, I believe that there are five central points that could attract decisive electoral support. They should be the center of an anti-Trump agenda:

  • Increase in minimum wages to US$ 15 per hour would attract the lower-income sectors, many young. It would reduce the amount of food stamps presently paid to employees of large corporations. At present personnel expenditures of several corporations are de facto subsidized;
  • Protecting Medicare, Medicaid, keeping Obamacare and incorporating a Public Option for health insurance could provide a simple and broadly appealing way of addressing the most immediate concerns for a large number of Americans. Medicare for all is perceived, at this stage, as a disruptive proposition, with or without reasons. Price controls on prescriptions are a must and should be prominent;
  • Military spending could be reduced by, say, $ 100 billion to the level prevailing under Obama with no impact on the so-called security; corporate taxes could be increased without affecting investments. Those savings should be devoted to infrastructure; key projects should be specified to the electorate. They may refer to environmental protection of the coasts thereby helping Democrats to gain support in Florida and other key electoral states. Increases in taxes on the upper incomes groups should not become a crusade against the rich. Such rhetoric is unnecessary;
  • Social issues, particularly on abortion rights, could strengthen support among women. These rights, Democrats must be emphatic, will be litmus test for Supreme Court nominees;
  • Finally in the international arena the US should return to the Paris Agreement, should look to re-start the Agreement with Iran and should not continue spousing a one-sided position on Middle East issues. These themes do help gather support among the youth, the urban and does not seem to alienate Jewish Democratic voters.

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