I have been following the tense situation in Europe like most of you, I am sure.  I have some familiarity with the area (Eastern Europe) but don’t pretend to be a specialist on the topic.  With this in mind, I would like to advance my thoughts on this issue:

*  The Russian invasion of parts of the Ukraine seems almost unavoidable. In such a case, I speculate that Russia will occupy areas that it regards as strategic to its security (Eastern Ukraine, Kiev,  Odessa, etc).

* Russia has  legitimate security concerns over developments in the area: expansion of NATO despite promises to the contrary, overt western support to antagonistic movements, support for the popular revolt/coup in the Ukraine that installed a pro-western regime. 

* European governments, some of them and not certainly the Baltic countries, seem to understand such concerns even though they are not very vocal about it. Moreover, Europe’s needs for Russian gas and its interests in accessing Russian markets are quite different than those of the USA.

* The USA government sees its influence diminished by the Russian move or imminent move. But the USA’s  decline in influence and power, while exacerbated during the Trump administration,  is part of the new state of world affairs: increasing Chinese economic power, consolidation of Putin in power, emergence of other powers with their own interests and ambitions (India, Iran, Turkey, and even South Korea).

* The overwhelming US military power is of little value in far away areas. Nuclear power, on the other hand, is good  for deterrence. But that option is not valid in regional conflicts. The situation in the Ukraine should be interpreted as a regional conflict I think.

* Is there a peaceful solution to this issue, even after a  Russian invasion? I believe that a “neutral” Ukraine, that is militarily speaking, is probably the only way out of this situation. That Ukraine would be similar to Finland or Austria. The country could still pursue western-oriented economic and social policies.

* If Putin does not have a Ukrainian or security issue, he will have to deal with its own domestic problems,  which are not minor. China may be an ally of Russia when the USA is on the other side but once this common concern disappears,  China has its own interests, not necessarily aligned  with Russia. 

* I wonder  why this venue, a  neutral Ukraine, has not been pursued!