There seem to be a lot of things we don’t know about this. But some lessons have clearly emerged.
First, the US Government is working to mine and monitor information of the whole world, thereby projecting a power far exceeding its military capabilities. This is unlikely to work in the longer term as the technology being used, as powerful as it is, may become obsolete in a few years.
Second, the influence of the consultancy-industrial complex benefiting from information mining and monitoring is probably huge. The security budget, which excludes the military budget, is around US$ 75 billion per year[i]; a large percentage of these expenditures are outsourced to consultant companies. There is an army of civilian workers in the industry. More than 4 million persons have top security clearance out of which 500,000 are private contractors[ii]. In many cases, clearance is provided by consultant companies which have been given the responsibility (and contract) for providing such clearance.
Third, the world is still afraid of the US. This has been proven by the air piracy suffered by the President of Bolivia in Europe. No government seems eager to grant unconditional asylum to Snowden. He has requested asylum from several countries. Almost all of them say more or less no. US pressure in the matter seems to be intense. Snowden may prefer to live in Vienna and work and talk freely. However, he may have to go to a developing country where a change in the political situation may result on him being handed over to the USA. He may have to limit his activities against the US spying program although this is unclear (he may have already provided all the information he has to third parties).
Fourth, relations between Europe and the USA are suffering. But that may be a short term phenomenon. What is suffering the most is confidence in the USA. It is close to non-existent at this point and is unlikely to recover for many years to come. It will be difficult for the US to consolidate and/or initiate any strategic alliance even when there are common interests with other countries.
Fifth, Obama is the great loser in all these events. The youth that used to support him in other countries feel betrayed by him. The younger USA population may feel he is now “one of them”, that is part of the traditional establishment. Obama seems to have limited power on security-related matters. He does not seem to have made efforts to change this situation, but if in fact he did, he has failed. Perhaps skepticism and cynicism will overtake large segments of the population, particularly the young. That is dangerous for any society.